On this paradisiacal but politically and economically depressed island of the Caribbean an almost unprecedented human catastrophe has happened before our very eyes. When the earth shook, hundreds of thousands were stricken, more than two hundred thousand have perished, and nobody knows just how many were left without a roof over their head. Now that the shock of the catastrophe has blown over, the island seems to have returned to its poverty-stricken normalcy, the orphans have been carted away or were given some sort of shelter, and the rest began to put together the favelas in which they’ve lived their whole lives. The media has now turned its attention to other news, and the public seems by and large to have forgotten the whole thing.
Among concerned people there was a widespread consensus that the international community was not capable of dealing with the chaos that resulted when the roof literally fell on the heads of this extremely poor and historically harshly dominated people. This was not the fault of the relief efforts, it was said: the chaos hampered almost any attempt to bring effective relief. Certainly, relief efforts should have been stepped up and should have been better coordinated, but even then, they would have been largely ineffective. Nobody knew what to do, where to turn, and nobody seemed to be in charge. With that observation the world went back to where it was before Haiti, just waiting for the next catastrophe to happen, who knows where or when.
But the world is not really waiting for the next catastrophe; instead, it’s actually dismissing the chances that it will happen. After all, earthquakes are seldom predictable, and they are not everyday occurrences: they are “acts of God” that happen once in a while, and they just happen when they happen. This is a dangerous stance to take. It neglects the real lesson Haiti should have taught us.
Think, first, how many people on this earth live like the people of Haiti. The World Bank estimates that well over a thousand million people live under the level of one dollar a day, and over two thousand million—nearly a third of humanity—live on less than two dollars. For the most part, poor people live in tropical or subtropical regions, so they don’t freeze in winter for lack of housing and in some fortunate areas don’t starve for lack of money to buy food. But they do live hand to mouth, at the fringes of physical subsistence. A further push and they dip below the threshold where life can be maintained. This doesn’t bother people elsewhere, for people elsewhere are not that close to the limits of physical subsistence, and they assume they are not in imminent danger of suffering a major earthquake.
But an earthquake is just one of the many catastrophes that can befall people. People need water and food, and shelter—not to mention health care, education, sanitation, and jobs, provided by an economic and political framework that enables them to maintain basic human relations. At a conservative estimate, about a third of the human family lives in conditions where these minimal standards of life could, and with a significant probability will, disappear from one day to the next. Global warming makes for changing weather patterns, allowing clouds to discharge water over mountains or seas, rather than over agricultural lands. The resulting drought, already experienced, reduces yields and makes harvests fail. Violent storms destroy frail habitations, and the wastes of urban settlements pollute their water supply. Large conglomerations poison as well as critically lower the level of their water tables. Rising seas flood the homes and land of hundreds of millions.
These are not accidental and unforeseeable occurrences, they are the logical consequences of processes already under way. The atmosphere is heating up and the climate is changing, the result is unusual and unexpected weather. The ice of the Antarctic is sliding into the sea, raising sea levels all over the world. Water scarcity is growing, now threatening nearly half of humanity. Already, in a matter of years, as much as a third of humanity will be either flooded with too much water—sea water—or suffering from not having enough water—fresh water. Many risk having their food supply drop below subsistence levels.
What will people do when one or another of these catastrophes happens to them? Some will be weakened and die, and others will do the only thing they can do, which is to move. Unless they live on an island where a mass escape is not possible, they will migrate to more livable areas. How many will make it? And what will happen to the populations that already live in those areas? To picture this scenario, multiply what happened in Haiti a hundred-fold, and place it on vast continents, such as Asia and Africa.
What will the international community do when something like this happens? Surely, it will attempt more and better organized relief efforts. But can it provide succor for several hundred thousand, or even several million, destitute people?
The catastrophe that will inevitably happen exceeds the most imaginative sci-fi scenario. But it is not sci-fi and it is not just of concern “elsewhere.” Surely, more than two-thirds of the world population will not be flooded or dying from lack of food and water, but that two-thirds doesn’t live on an ecological, economic, and political island either, it will be affected. Perhaps the affected populations will simply die away and reduce the human load on the planet. In the aftermath of Haiti, this seems plausible to some. But this “optimistic” view leaves out of account that the next catastrophe will not only strike people on remote paradisiacal islands. Enormous waves of migrants will flow from destitute areas inland and north, touching North America, Europe, and almost every country in Africa and Asia.
The conditions under which the people of Haiti live are not exceptional. People living in such conditions are extremely vulnerable. If they are stricken by a catastrophe—which could very likely be humanly induced or exacerbated—no conceivable relief effort may be able help them. And no population, whether rich or poor, will be insulated from the aftereffects.
What, then, is the forgotten lesson of Haiti? The lesson is not to wait until catastrophes happen: it may then be too late to cope with them. The lesson is to realize that a third of humanity is threatened and needs to be rescued before the roof collapses over its head.
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As a health care practitioner over the last 44 years, I have dealt with the lives of many who are affected by catastrophe. As you well note, too many people believe that what happened in Haiti was a tragic accident, and couldn’t have been predicted. Yet, its clear that world-wide poverty, overcrowding, lack of health-care etc. is a tragedy waiting to happen.
Some might believe that eliminating millions of people from this crowded earth will make more room for the rest of us. But most people won’t die. The survivors will be on the move and they’re coming our way. If we want to protect our own homes, we need to protect theirs before the roof falls in.
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